This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article. The original article was written by Nancy Thomas, Director of the Institute for Democracy & Higher Education, Tisch College of Civic Life, Tufts University. 

In order to gain insight into the role that college students might play in the outcome of the 2018 midterm elections on Tuesday, Nov. 6, The Conversation reached out to Nancy Thomas, director of the Institute for Democracy & Higher Education at Tufts University’s Tisch College of Civic Life. Thomas predicts a higher voter turnout among the nation’s 20 million college students, a “formidable voting bloc” that she says was jolted to attention by the 2016 election of Donald Trump as president. But she also warns that personal and practical factors might impede the college vote.

1. Is there any reason to expect voter turnout among college students will be higher this time around than it was in the previous midterm election?

I predict that college students will vote at higher rates in 2018 than in the 2014 midterm election, but that’s a low bar since the National Study of Learning, Voting & Engagement revealed only 18 percent of students, including graduate students and older students who tend to vote at higher rates, opted to vote in 2014. Only 13 percent of students aged 18-24 voted.

New numbers suggest that 2018 will be different. The number of 18-29-year-olds who voted in 2018 primaries is 4 percent higher than in 2014, and has more than doubled in key battleground states. The number of people who registered on National Voter Registration Day in September 2018 was 800,000, significantly higher than the 155,000 who registered that day for the 2014 midterm.

2. What’s at stake for college students in the midterms?

The 2016 presidential election results jolted college students – and faculty and administrators at their colleges – to attention. Young Americans preferred Hillary Clinton over Trump by 55 percent to 37 percent, so many were disappointed and surprised by the results. Our research institute provides campuses with individual reports of their students’ registration and voting rates. When campuses saw their rates, which averaged 48 percent in 2016, that was a wake-up call.

When I talk with college students throughout the nation, they say they care about immigration and the treatment of Dreamers, #MeToo and #BlackLivesMatter, gun violence and ownership, economics and jobs, student loans and the environment. This Harvard poll confirms many of my impressions.

Students represent a formidable voting bloc. There are 20 million college and university students nationwide. There are now more eligible voters under the age of 30 than over the age of 65, with 49 million ages 18-29 and 45 million over 65.

From our studies of politically engaged campuses, we identified that a combination of factors can foster interest in public affairs and voting. For example, politically engaged campuses provide lots of opportunities for students to talk politics. Peers also matter. Getting one person in a club or friend group can motivate others in the group. Student activism, and positive reactions by the administration, can give students a sense that their voices matter. And of course, students like fun. Parades to the polls, entertainment for students who need to wait in line to vote and social events will generate excitement.

3. What are the biggest obstacles to voting for college students?

College students face two types of barriers to voting – technical and motivational.

Technical barriers include challenges like overly restrictive identification requirements or registration processes, distant polling locations, long lines or laborious processes for voting absentee. Local officials can also present arbitrary barriers. One tried to administer questionnaires that suggested additional prerequisites to voting. Sometimes, students feel they are too busy to find the time to vote on Election Day. Voting should be convenient.

Motivational barriers include students disliking our political system or sensing that the candidates do not represent their interests. Some feel that their district or state is so heavily weighted toward one political party, that their vote doesn’t matter. Some students feel uninformed about the issues or candidates.

With broad variations in ballots and voting machines, the process itself can be intimidating, particularly for first-time voters and students who did not tag along with their parents on Election Day.

While historically, many college students might have been labeled apathetic, all signs point to high levels of student interest in the upcoming election.

4. Will college students shift the nation in a different direction in the coming years?

Whether college students can shift policy depends on whether they turn out to vote – signaling that they are serious about influencing policy – and whether elected officials care what they think. If enough turn out, candidates will have no choice but to care.

To determine the direction policies might go, it helps to look at the demographic breakdowns, particularly age, gender, and race of college and university students and their turnout patterns. Of the 10 million students in the database for the National Study of Learning, Voting and Engagement, around 85 percent are undergraduates. If this group turns out, they can shape the outcomes in many districts this November.

More women attend U.S. colleges and universities than men – the split is around 60-40. In 2012 and 2014, among students in the National Study of Learning, Voting and Engagement, black women in college had the highest voting rates among college students. As in the general population, college women vote at higher rates than college men. Attracting the vote of college students, then, may mean crafting policies that appeal to women and women of color in particular.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article. The original article was written by Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg, Director, Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement in the Jonathan M. Tisch College of Civic Life, Tufts University. 

Unlike the much-studied millennials, we don’t know much about Generation Z, who now make up most of the 18- to 24-year-old voting bloc.

These young people started first grade after 9/11, were born with the internet, grew up with smartphones and social media and practiced active-shooter drills in their classrooms.

In 2018, they have taken an active role in political activism on issues like gun control, Black Lives Matter and #MeToo. For example, Parkland high school students started the movement against gun violence and named voting as a way to support the movement.

Yet, many people are skeptical about Generation Z’s commitment to voting. For instance, The Economist explained, in a piece titled “Why Young People Don’t Vote,” that “young people today do not feel they have much of a stake in society.”

Will Generation Z affect the midterm elections?

The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University, where we do research, has been watching young people’s civic and political behaviors for nearly 20 years. This fall, my colleagues and I are conducting two large-scale national surveys of 2,087 Americans ages 18 to 24 to document and understand what Gen Zs are thinking, feeling and doing when it comes to politics.

So far, the data point to a surge in political engagement, intention to vote and outreach between friends to encourage voting. Gen Zers may be voting for the first time, but they are certainly not new to politics.

All signs point to youth wave

Young voters have a reputation of not showing up to the polls, especially in midterm elections. This trend goes back 40 years.

There are a few ways we can find out how likely it is that people in Generation Z will turn out to vote.

First, we can just ask. In our survey, 34 percent of youth said they are “extremely likely” to vote in November. While a survey can’t predict exact turnout numbers, data from previous surveys we’ve done using this approach have been close to actual turnout numbers. Other evidence supports this measure of intent to vote: Voter registration among young people is up in key battleground states and overall.

Research also shows that activism and intent to vote are strongly correlated. So, in our survey we also asked young people about activism, such as participating in protests, union strikes, sit-ins and walk-outs.

The proportion of young people who join protests and marches tripled since the fall of 2016, from 5 percent to 15 percent. Participation is especially high among young people who are registered as Democrats.

Finally, we found that young people are paying attention to politics more than they were in 2016. In 2016, about 26 percent of young people said they were paying at least some attention to the November elections. This fall, the proportion of youth who report that they are paying attention to the midterm races rose to 46 percent.

It’s clear that more young people are actively engaged in politics this year than 2016.

Why?

Cynicism and worry aren’t obstacles

To learn more about what might be motivating Generation Z to vote, we asked our survey participants to rate their level of agreement with three statements.

“I worry that older generations haven’t thought about young people’s future.”

“I’m more cynical about politics than I was 2 years ago.”

“The outcomes of the 2018 elections will make a significant impact to everyday issues involving the government in my community, such as schools and police.”

In this year’s survey, we found that young people who feel cynical are far more likely to say they will vote. Other research has found that cynicism about politics can suppress or drive electoral engagement depending on the contexts.

Among young people who said “yes” to all three of those questions, more than half – 52 percent – said they are extremely likely to vote. Among young people who said “no” to all three of those questions, only 22 percent were extremely likely to vote.

Our poll results suggest political involvement in this generation is far above the levels we usually see among youth, especially in midterm election cycles.

In fact, almost 3 out of 4 youth – 72 percent – said they believe that dramatic change could occur in this country if people banded together. Gen Z is certainly aware of the challenges ahead but they are hopeful and actively involving themselves and friends in politics. Beyond almost any doubt, youth are involved and feel ready to make a dramatic change in the American political landscape.