The dust has finally settled on the outcome of the past few weeks. President-elect Donald Trump won both the popular vote and the electoral college vote–by larger margins than many Democrats had hoped. Hundreds of journalists, reporters, and X users type away at their keyboards right now, coming up with explanations for why the Harris campaign failed or why the Trump campaign succeeded. Some will scapegoat minority voters. Others will point out the rightward swing in exit polling as an indicator of increasing fascism in America–though many will fail to prescribe methods to counter the rise of fascism. Others still will contrive stories about voting patterns of this voting margin or that polling demographic. Ultimately, it is too early to say with any certainty whether or not these judgments are true, even if I–and many others–have strong suspicions regarding the failure of the Harris campaign.
Instead, I hope to report some successes in this election and to wishcast some favorable indicators of areas where the American public has voted in favor of policies largely in line with left populism. The electorate affirmed these policies that impact their material conditions, such as public education, healthcare, and protections for workers; areas which should be of key interest to those looking for either hope or a path forward in this new Trump presidency.
Public education is the first among these issues to feature a decisive turn towards public institutions. Here in the Bluegrass, Amendment 2 failed, preventing our commonwealth from sending treasury funds to private K-12 schools. In spite of fears about the public’s understanding of the amendment’s meaning, a nationwide push to privatize education, and support of the amendment coming from Republican party members in a strongly Republican state, Kentuckians still voted in favor of public education. Every county in Kentucky voted against the proposed amendment, and, save for a handful of counties around our state, votes swung heavily against the proposal. Kentuckians’ support for public education was won by a landslide.
Image via: NYT, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-kentucky-amendment-2-allow-state-funding-for-non-public-education.html
In Nebraska, voters repealed LB1402, a bill providing $10 million to transfer students from private to public schools. The referendum succeeded, with 57.1% of voters rejecting the use of Nebraska’s treasury to fund private education. To the west, in Colorado, voters rejected by a slimmer margin an amendment that would have codified school choice into the constitution of Colorado, only rejecting the amendment with 51.4% of votes.
All three states, two red and one blue, voted for public education. Clearly, something about public education resonates with voters, particularly those in rural areas, as election maps in Nebraska and Colorado show a wider margin of votes against education choice.
If not education, then the material woes of voters appear in the voting of another Midwest election. Missouri voted by a margin of 8% to raise the minimum wage in the state to $15 an hour, to adjust the minimum wage according to the Consumer Price Index starting in 2027, and to require employers statewide to provide paid sick leave hours. This, unequivocally, is a massive win for working people in Missouri, a state that voted for Republican candidates Donald Trump and Josh Hawley. Nebraska, a state that receives even less press compared to Missouri, passed Measure 436, requiring employers to provide paid sick leave for their employees. Further, the measure specified that employers cannot retaliate against workers who use their paid sick leave. This protection for workers’ rights passed by 74.3% in yet another Republican-dominated state, showing that a broadly left populist policy works.
Image via: NYT, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-nebraska-initiative-436-require-paid-sick-leave.html
In a number of other states, another key issue was on the ballot. Re-litigating the issue of abortion is far too wide and too complex an issue to tackle in a paragraph, so to suffice for this piece, lack of access to abortions means medical bills, childcare, and a whole host of other costs. In a country where most working women cannot make rent or pay for their healthcare, restricting (and banning) abortion becomes, in part, a material issue for working families.
Luckily, the right to an abortion succeeded in Montana, Colorado, Nevada, Arizona, Missouri, Maryland, and New York. In spite of electing Donald Trump in Nevada, Missouri, Montana, and likely in Arizona, abortion rights were upheld by voters in the states. In Florida, a majority of voters affirmed the right to abortion. Still, the amendment failed due to an obstructionist law passed by Florida in 2006 requiring amendments to garner 60% of the vote rather than the simple majority in most states.
In Nebraska, although a 12-week ban was passed, women still retain the right to abortion in the first trimester. Of course, experts in states like Louisiana, where a similar abortion protocol succeeded, argue that this restriction complicates healthcare for both the women and the fetus, with many OB-GYNs refusing to provide prenatal care until after the period when a woman could receive an abortion. The only state to ban abortion by a considerable margin was South Dakota, voting to entirely ban abortion, except in cases regarding the survival of the mother, by 60%.
Again, like public education in Kentucky, minimum wage in Missouri, and paid sick leave in Nebraska, there are indicators of progressive policy’s popularity and success with most Americans. Even hardened anti-populist liberals like David Brooks, who in 2020 published a scathing opinion column on the Sanders campaign, have softened to the idea that the electorate responds to left populist policies–though he attributes this change to the ‘diploma divide’ instead of class politics.
The mixed results of this election’s down-ballot state amendments, propositions, and measures fall in line with the polling of Americans on the issue of abortion. Pew Research shows the support of abortion in 2024 at 63%–a percentage that has shown an upward trajectory since 2009. In most other areas, some polling suggests very high support for progressive policies regarding the expansion and rights of healthcare, support for higher minimum wages, and more government support for education. This election’s down-ballot successes, though only a small sample of all the issues at hand, demonstrate the hope that progressive policies, championed by Democratic governors in red states, win over normal people. Moreover, it gives the impression that working people across the country yearn for policies that help them pay for groceries, cover their medical bills, send their children to school, and keep them housed.
